September 2026 Data Center Energy Report

The verdict distribution is stark: 100 markets land in AVOID territory against only 23 BUILD-eligible sites, signaling a narrowing window for greenfield power procurement. SPP dominates the build-friendly landscape with a 91.7% BUILD-rated portfolio and 69.2 MW average excess capacity, making Rural SPP (10.8-month TTP) the most structurally sound entry point for hyperscale development. ERCOT presents a paradox—Midland–Odessa scores highest nationally at 83.0 composite despite ERCOT's 5.3% build rate—but that ranking reflects localized resource abundance decoupled from grid-wide constraint stress; average ERCOT constraint sits at 55.0, highest among major ISOs. PJM and NORDPOOL are functionally closed: PJM registers 0.0% BUILD allocation with Chantilly hitting 57.4 constraint, while Copenhagen and Helsinki both exceed 56.0, signaling transmission saturation rather than capacity shortage. MISO and WECC tier two behind SPP but offer pockets—Upper Peninsula MI (9.6-month TTP, 77.1 score) and Cheyenne (10.8-month TTP, 73.2 score)—where development remains viable.

Over the next two quarters, this distribution predicts accelerating scarcity in East Coast and Northern European corridors offset by sustainable supply in the continental interior. Queue depth remains opaque, but the 41.9 average constraint in MISO and 42.2 in WECC, paired with 16.0 and 15.7-month TTPs respectively, suggest interconnection timelines are lengthening as low-friction sites saturate. SPP's 10.8-month average TTP is the structural anomaly—genuine excess, not queue compression. Curtailment risk is highest where AVOID verdicts cluster: PJM, NORDPOOL, and WECC coastal zones face real grid-edge congestion. Power availability will bifurcate sharply: SPP and HQ (50.0% BUILD rate, 9.6-month TTP) will absorb new load at subsidy-free returns, while PJM, ERCOT periphery, and WECC west coast will default to power purchase agreements or brownfield retrofits. Avoid chasing headline capacity; target TTPs under 12 months in SPP or MISO north.