{"comps":{"land":[],"powered_shell":[]},"hero":{"composite_score":null,"computed_at":"2026-10-27T08:32:51.921851+00:00","constraint_score":63.6,"excess_power":36.3,"iso":"PJM","lat":39.02,"lng":-77.47,"name":"ASHBURN","queue_wait_months":null,"slug":"ashburn","state":"VA","time_to_power_mo":71.5,"time_to_power_months":71.5,"verdict":"AVOID"},"is_pro":true,"kpis":{"facility_count":321,"headline_basis":"every facility listing DC Hub tracks in this market (operational, under construction, planned and announced; verified and unverified listings included), deduplicated by name + operator across the facilities and discovered_facilities tables. MW is summed over the listings that report capacity (mw_reporting_count of facility_count), so read it as a floor.","lease_rate":null,"mw_reporting_count":119,"operational_mw":10039.0,"pipeline_mw":832.0,"queue_months":null,"top_operator":{"facility_count":35,"name":"Digital Realty"},"total_mw":8662.0,"unverified_included":true,"vacancy_pct":null},"live_as_of":{"age_hours":0.1,"iso":"2026-10-27T08:32:51.921851+00:00"},"ma":[{"buyer":"Amazon","date":null,"mw":null,"seller":null,"type":"acquisition","value":427.0,"value_unit":"USD millions"}],"ok":true,"open_access":"Open to every caller: this is one of the 20 largest US data-center markets by tracked capacity, and its full market briefing (grid, risk, time to power, scores) is free.","operators":[{"facility_count":35,"operator":"Digital Realty","ranked_by":"facility_count","total_mw":252.0},{"facility_count":25,"operator":"Equinix","ranked_by":"facility_count","total_mw":429.0},{"facility_count":17,"operator":"Amazon Web Services","ranked_by":"facility_count","total_mw":1800.0},{"facility_count":10,"operator":"CloudHQ","ranked_by":"facility_count","total_mw":594.0},{"facility_count":9,"operator":"AWS","ranked_by":"facility_count","total_mw":500.0}],"outlook":{"generated_at":"2026-10-25T09:37:36.666451+00:00","narrative_md":"# Ashburn Data Center Market Analysis\n\nAshburn remains structurally mature but severely constrained: 321 tracked facilities span 8,662 MW across a market dominated by four operators\u2014Digital Realty leads with 35 sites, followed by Equinix (25), Amazon Web Services (17), and CloudHQ (10). The market exhibits textbook signs of saturation, with power availability scoring only 36/100 on the DCPI excess-power metric while regulatory and infrastructure constraints push the constraint score to 63/100. This concentration of capacity in a single geography, combined with limited headroom for incremental megawatt deployment, reflects Ashburn's transition from growth market to managed-decline incumbent hub.\n\nThe DCPI verdict of AVOID signals severe structural headwinds for new entrants and capacity-focused buyers. A constraint score of 63/100 reflects acute bottlenecks in grid interconnection, transmission upgrade timelines, and local zoning resistance\u2014factors that materially compress return windows and extend development timelines beyond typical Northern Virginia project schedules. For operators seeking to deploy capital, the excess-power deficit of 36/100 indicates demand outpaces readily available infrastructure, pushing pricing upward while limiting lease flexibility. Buyers entering Ashburn today face binary outcomes: acquire existing operational assets (trading premium valuations for immediate revenue) or delay greenfield projects pending multi-year utility upgrades, both scenarios that compress IRRs relative to less-constrained markets.\n\nRecent deal activity underscores selective, defensive positioning. Amazon recorded two $427M acquisitions in Ashburn, but reported context indicates the company subsequently cancelled its planned campus data center program in favor of mixed-use redevelopment\u2014a telling signal that even hyperscalers view traditional capacity expansion as economically unviable in this market. No acquisition announcements from CloudHQ, Equinix, or Digital Realty in the tracked period suggest incumbents are managing portfolios through optimization rather than growth. The absence of new greenfield deal flow from mid-tier operators reflects rational capital allocation: developers pivot to markets with lower constraint scores and available power, leaving Ashburn to asset managers harvesting existing lease economics.\n\nAshburn's market trajectory hinges on whether grid upgrades from Dominion Energy materialize within the next 18\u201324 months, a timeline that remains uncertain and operationally dependent on state regulatory approval.","rationale":null,"verdict":"AVOID","word_count":337},"pipeline":[{"eta":null,"facility":"Yondr Loudoun County Expansion (270 acres)","operator":"Yondr Group","power_mw":240.0,"status":"Planned"},{"eta":null,"facility":"Prime Data Centers Ashburn","operator":"Prime Data Centers","power_mw":120.0,"status":"Under Construction"},{"eta":null,"facility":"Compass Loudoun County Campus","operator":"Compass Datacenters","power_mw":100.0,"status":"Under Construction"},{"eta":null,"facility":"PowerHouse Arcola","operator":"PowerHouse Data Centers","power_mw":80.0,"status":"Under Construction"},{"eta":null,"facility":"Compass Northern Virginia","operator":"Compass","power_mw":60.0,"status":"Under Construction"},{"eta":null,"facility":"EdgeCore Ashburn Maries Road","operator":"EdgeCore Digital Infrastructure","power_mw":57.0,"status":"Under Construction"},{"eta":null,"facility":"EdgeCore Ashburn Moran Road","operator":"EdgeCore Digital Infrastructure","power_mw":57.0,"status":"Under Construction"},{"eta":null,"facility":"Yondr Allegro North Campus (Loudoun County)","operator":"Yondr Group","power_mw":48.0,"status":"Under Construction"},{"eta":null,"facility":"Overwatch Virginia 1","operator":"Overwatch Capital","power_mw":35.0,"status":"Under Construction"},{"eta":null,"facility":"DataBank IAD4","operator":"DataBank","power_mw":20.0,"status":"Under Construction"},{"eta":null,"facility":"Vantage Virginia Expansion","operator":"Vantage Data Centers","power_mw":15.0,"status":"Planned"},{"eta":null,"facility":"PowerHouse Pacific (Sterling)","operator":"PowerHouse Data Centers","power_mw":null,"status":"Under Construction"}],"power_grid":{"gen_additions_mw":3212.7,"interconnection_pending_mw":298078.4,"iso":"PJM","iso_queue":{"as_of":"2026-10-27","as_of_basis":"live_feed_fetch_date","basis_note":"Active serial + Transition Cycle (TC1/TC2) + Cycle 1 generation requests, sum of MFO (maximum facility output, not firm MW capacity); excludes transmission-service requests, In Service and Withdrawn. Since 2026-10-20 this total includes PJM's Cycle 1 requests, which the serial export alone did not list (that is why it rose from ~135 GW); not a PJM refresh","iso":"PJM","queue_kind":"generation_queue","queued_generation_gw":374.2,"source_name":"PJM cycle + serial service request status (active generation requests, sum of MFO)","source_url":"https://www.pjm.com/planning/m/cycle-service-request-status"},"queue_capacity_mw":71424.9,"queue_wait_months":null,"reserve_margin_pct":14.5,"time_to_power_as_of":"2026-10-27T08:32:51.921851+00:00","time_to_power_basis":"DCPI modelled months to energize a new large load in this market (method: https://dchub.cloud/dcpi/methodology); a model estimate, not a utility date","time_to_power_months":71.5},"redirect_to":null,"requested":"ashburn","risk":{"drought_months_d2_plus":null,"errors":{"drought_months_d2_plus":"no_drought_source_ingested"},"water_band":3,"water_band_label":"Medium-High","water_category":"mean of 52 Aqueduct 4.0 baseline-annual basins (arid counted as ","water_stress":49.0,"wildfire_seismic_note":null},"slug":"ashburn","tier":"FREE"}